{"id":2488,"date":"2026-07-03T11:14:21","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T11:14:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zephyrsys.us\/index.php\/2026\/07\/03\/new-report-blames-russias-shadow-fleet-for-europe-drone-incursions\/"},"modified":"2026-07-03T11:14:21","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T11:14:21","slug":"new-report-blames-russias-shadow-fleet-for-europe-drone-incursions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zephyrsys.us\/index.php\/2026\/07\/03\/new-report-blames-russias-shadow-fleet-for-europe-drone-incursions\/","title":{"rendered":"New Report Blames Russia\u2019s Shadow Fleet for Europe Drone Incursions"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Europe<\/p>\n

A report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) assesses that it is \u2018highly likely\u2019 many of recent drone incidents throughout Europe were ordered by Moscow as part of a wider hybrid campaign against NATO.<\/h2>\n

The investigation<\/a> focuses on incidents taking place between August 2024 and February 2026, including incursions into the airspace of thirteen individual countries. All but one of these nations, the exception being Ireland, are members of NATO.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Among the incursions documented in the report are those which <\/span>targeted U.S. Air Force sites in the UK<\/span><\/a> \u2013 which <\/span>The Aviationist<\/span><\/i> covered in depth<\/span><\/a> across <\/span>three articles<\/span><\/a> \u2013 as well as the incident over the French Navy ballistic missile submarine base at <\/span>\u00cele Longue<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

This report assesses that it is highly likely the Kremlin conducted a coordinated Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle (UAV) campaign over Europe between August 2024 and February 2026, spanning a dozen NATO states and Ireland.<\/p>\n

It is also likely that Russian-linked vessels and the shadow\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/pGRtWRHPtE<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 IISS News (@IISS_org) July 2, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

By corroborating the various reports of drone incursions with data relating to ships that are known or suspected to belong to <\/span>Russia\u2019s shadow fleet<\/span><\/a>, the IISS has named several vessels in particular that it believes were responsible for launching and\/or directing the drones.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It notes that the cargo vessel <\/span>Hav Dolphin <\/span><\/i>(IMO 9073854), investigated by both Germany and the Netherlands after drone incursions in the spring of 2025, was in fact docked in Hull, UK, while British and American authorities were dealing with the drone sightings over military sites in November 2024.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Suspected drone carrier \/ cargo ship HAV DOLPHIN entered Baltic Sea via Kiel kanal, last port Antwerp. Stated destination Vasa, FI<\/p>\n

The Russian crewed ship is suspected if being behind drone flights over military installations in NW Germany a few months ago. pic.twitter.com\/i4QfsyLyzi<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 auonsson (@auonsson) August 24, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

At the same time, the tanker <\/span>Seasons I<\/span><\/i> (IMO 9308950) travelled eastbound through the Straits of Dover and routed approximately parallel to the southern coast of East Anglia where RAF Lakenheath, RAF Mildenhall, and a number of other sensitive U.S. and UK military facilities are located.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Positions of selected Russian shadow-fleet tankers around Germany and the UK, 26 November 2024 | Source: The International Institute for Strategic Studies<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Comment from anonymous U.S. officials at the time of the incursions suggested that the drones were of a sophistication beyond what would be expected for commercially available civilian drones. As we noted, the incursions over these important U.S. bases came just days after then President Joe Biden gave Ukraine the <\/span>long awaited all-clear<\/span><\/a> to use long range missiles to strike targets deep inside Russian territory.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Selected reported UAV sightings in Europe by location and site, August 2024\u2013February 2026 | Source: The International Institute for Strategic Studies<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In its executive summary of the lengthy report, the IISS argues that while not every UAV incident during this period is likely to have been linked to Russia, \u201cthe aggregate pattern of UAV sightings cannot be adequately explained by misidentification, hobbyist activity or opportunistic harassment alone.\u201d<\/p>\n

Careful Scrutiny<\/h3>\n

There is no smoking gun that definitively proves Russia\u2019s involvement, and none of the nations affected in these drone incursions have yet directly pointed their finger in Russia\u2019s direction, though IISS researchers have suggested that these countries have given their tacit approval of the report. \u201cEvery government we spoke to said they would welcome the report being published,<\/a>\u201d said Charlie Edwards, Senior Fellow for Strategy & National Security.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Without the smoking gun, some have questioned the report\u2019s findings. Dronewatch Europe have said: \u201cThe conclusions are striking. However, they also deserve careful scrutiny.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cThe report does not present physical evidence linking any specific drone to any specific vessel. No launch has been observed, no command links have been intercepted, no wreckage has been recovered, no credible video footage was recorded, and no telemetry or forensic data has been released tying a drone to a Russian ship.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

New IISS report revives \u2018Russian shadow fleet drone\u2019 theory, but fails to provide evidence https:\/\/t.co\/aQNZoaX2O3<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/efG2r4BgCD<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Dronewatch Europe (@DronewatchEU) July 2, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

This forensic data is, of course, difficult for a non-state actor to obtain. Primary radar data and advanced intelligence (including the use of electro-optical sensors, signals intelligence (SIGINT), and human intelligence (HUMINT)<\/a>) capabilities would be of paramount importance to gathering the definitive facts in cases like this.<\/p>\n

Whether the capable intelligence agencies \u2013 in many cases, world leading \u2013 of the nations involved have in fact collected these facts is unclear. While one could argue that the fact no country has stepped forward and set out a comprehensive case for Russia\u2019s involvement, it is also true that doing so could prejudice some of the capabilities and\/or sources of intelligence available to them. Proving Russia\u2019s guilt in the public domain might not outweigh the value of these intelligence assets.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n

The @RoyalAirForce<\/a> has recently deployed its Counter-Uncrewed Aerial System to Belgium in response to rogue drones interrupting flights at Brussels Airport. This comes just a month after the system was deployed to Denmark.<\/p>\n

The RAF\u2019s C-UAS capability is called ORCUS, which is a\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/bS6buQuCDc<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Leonardo Electronics (@LDO_Electronics) November 11, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Dronewatch\u2019s own investigation into 61 drone sightings across Europe in 2025<\/a> found that, in many cases, \u201creported drones turned out to be perfectly ordinary aircraft, helicopters, stars, planets or other explainable phenomena. In numerous cases there was simply no evidence that a drone had ever been present.\u201d.<\/p>\n

The IISS report does touch on these earlier investigations, though it argues that \u201cIn an operating environment where European detection capability was demonstrably insufficient to reliably track low-altitude, non-cooperative UAVs, a high non-confirmation rate is the expected outcome regardless of whether the sightings were genuine.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cA high false-positive rate in public reporting is, if anything, analytically consistent with Russian operational design: engineering an environment of ambiguity in which genuine incursions are difficult to distinguish from noise is itself a feature of the campaign,\u201d the report continues.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Whether any of the drones were in fact linked to Russia or not, the IISS states that Europe\u2019s counter-UAS (C-UAS)<\/a> strategy has not kept up with the threat now posed by these systems: \u201cdetection is uneven, legal authorities are fragmented, response options are often disproportionate, and attribution remains too slow to support timely deterrence.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) assesses that it is \u2018highly likely\u2019 many of recent drone incidents throughout Europe were ordered by Moscow as part of a wider hybrid campaign against NATO. The investigation focuses on incidents taking place between August 2024 and February 2026, including incursions into the airspace of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2489,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zephyrsys.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2488","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zephyrsys.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zephyrsys.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zephyrsys.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zephyrsys.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2488"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zephyrsys.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2488\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zephyrsys.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2489"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zephyrsys.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zephyrsys.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zephyrsys.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}